Phil Ivey vs. Full Tilt: Early Analysis

When Black Friday first hit on April 15th, PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker seemed like they were put into identical situations, and most people lumped them together when talking about the scandal, because their situation was different than UB/Absolute, which was a smaller company and less likely to survive. 

That feeling was strengthened a few days later when Tilt and Stars signed identical deals with the DOJ promising to return funds to U.S. players. 

But every week since then, Full Tilt and PokerStars have drifted further and further apart in how they responded to Black Friday. 

PokerStars quickly provided a clear FAQ to American players, and began payouts a week or two later. Most players have long since received their money and had the funds cleared into their bank accounts. (I got my $156.37 back.) 

Full Tilt issued a follow-up press release stating that there were some accounting issues with the frozen bank accounts that might delay the player refunds. This was the first sign that Stars and Tilt were in different situations. 

Since then, it has only gotten worse. Once PokerStars paid back their U.S. players, the pressure increased on Full Tilt to do the same, but they’ve made little progress since then. They promise an update, usually released by FTPDoug on the 2+2 forums, but when it comes it never provides any insight into the key question -- when will U.S. players get their money back? 

One of the early updates was promised for May 5th, but when it was posted, it provided no answers. I took to my Twitter feed and posted this:

May 5, 2011: The day I recommend non-U.S. players get their money off Full Tilt as quickly as they can.

That caused a heated response, as you might imagine, as I was bombarded by tweets and text messages. I continued to argue my point, and repeated it again after Full Tilt’s next non-update 11 days later. 

A lot of people were asking if I had inside info -- I didn’t. I based my recommendation solely on their own updates. Tilt claimed their were no problems, but I couldn’t come up with any scenario for their actions and comments that wasn’t bad news for U.S. players. And that meant that at some point, it would be bad news for non-U.S. players. 

That point may have been reached yesterday, on Day 1 of the 2011 WSOP.

Phil Ivey Drops a Bomb

When Bluff Magazine asked industry insiders to vote for the most powerful people in poker, I didn’t rank Phil Ivey very high. My reasoning was that while Ivey held a lot of potential power to influence the industry, he never exercised it. (Contrast that with Daniel Negreanu, who often uses his high profile to push for change in the industry.)

Well, Phil Ivey exercised his power yesterday, and the entire poker world felt it. 

Here’s what Phil Ivey posted to his Facebook page, and later, to PhilIvey.com:

For many years, I have been proud to call myself a poker player. This great sport has taken me to places I only imagined going and I have been blessed with much success. It is therefore with deep regret that I believe I am compelled to release the following statement.

I am deeply disappointed and embarrassed that Full Tilt players have not been paid money they are owed. I am equally embarrassed that as a result many players cannot compete in tournaments and have suffered economic harm. I am not playing in the World Series of Poker as I do not believe it is fair that I compete when others cannot. I am doing everything I can to seek a solution to the problem as quickly as possible.

My name and reputation have been dragged through the mud, through the inactivity and indecision of others and on behalf of all poker players I refuse to remain silent any longer. I have electronically filed a lawsuit against Tiltware related to the unsettled player accounts. As I am sure the public can imagine, this was not an easy decision for me.I wholeheartedly refuse to accept non-action as to repayment of players funds and I am angered that people who have supported me throughout my career have been treated so poorly.

I sincerely hope this statement will ignite those capable of resolving the problems into immediate action and would like to clarify that until a solution is reached that cements the security of all players, both US and International, I will, as I have for the last six weeks, dedicate the entirety of my time and efforts to finding a solution for those who have been wronged by the painfully slow process of repayment.

First, that is an awkwardly written press release, and raises as many questions as it answers. Where did he “electronically file” a lawsuit against Tiltware, and on what grounds? That information would enter the public record anyway -- Associated Press reporter Oskar Garcia (@OskarGarcia on Twitter) has already confirmed it was filed this morning in Clark County District Court, and should have a copy in his hands today.

Update 1: The notice of filing is on the Clark County District Court website. I can't directly link to it, but you can see a screenshot of it by clicking here.

Update 2: AP reporter Oskar Garcia has filed his first story on the subject, and has apparently read the details of the lawsuit that Ivey filed this morning. You can read Garcia’s story by clicking here.

The Medium Affects the Message

For reasons not yet known, Phil Ivey chose to drop his bomb on, of all places, Facebook. Ivey has an official Facebook page, and he seems to have even posted an occasional update. But Ivey is famous for not giving a crap about social media, and I have heard him question whether he had a Twitter account on two separate occasions, while others were actively tweeting on his behalf.

For Ivey to release a bombshell like this through Facebook didn’t make any sense, and the awkward wording of the press release led a lot of people in the poker media to question whether or not it was authentic. The timing was also weird -- about 8:30 pm PT / 11:30 pm ET. 

If Ivey wanted to get the maximum impact out of this statement, he should have released it yesterday morning, before the WSOP got underway. If he wanted to wait until after play began (either because he hadn’t fully made up his mind or wanted to respect the WSOP’s first day), he should have released it this morning (WSOP Day 2). 

Ivey and his closest advisors should have also hired a publicist to handle this. For a one-time fee of about $1,000, Ivey could have had somebody clean up his press release so it makes more sense, and include relevant information so people could write about it with maximum impact from the beginning. Releasing the statement as six separate posts on his Facebook page was amateurish -- that’s how high schoolers break up with their girlfriends, not how multimillionaires sue billion-dollar companies. 

Releasing his statement this way (late in the evening of Day 1 on Facebook) watered down the impact of Ivey’s message. ESPN is talking about Ivey on SportsCenter today, but without a properly-written press release, they don’t have enough facts to talk about it as much as they’d like. Handled properly, Oskar Garcia could have had an AP story out on the wire to tell Ivey’s story minutes after Ivey issued the statement. No matter how Ivey released this statement, it would have a huge impact. But it could have been even bigger. 

Why Is Phil Ivey So Angry?

Disclaimer:  I have no first-hand sources for the Phil Ivey information in this section, and don’t have contact with anyone in Phil Ivey’s inner circle. My sources are second- and third-hand, but I trust them and believe in their access to information like this. 

I’ve gotten word that Phil Ivey’s anger actually pre-dates the Black Friday scandal. There is talk that Ivey wanted to cash out big money from Full Tilt, and was urged to keep it there. I don’t know how much is in Ivey’s online bankroll, nor do I have any information about whether or not he has any ownership shares in the company. My educated guess is that he has a lot of both. By “cashing out,” I’m not sure if that means he wanted to sell his stock or withdrawal a majority of his bankroll, or both. There are plenty of legitimate, non-conspiracy reasons to do either one. (So it doesn’t mean that Ivey had “inside info” that Black Friday was coming -- especially since he was apparently talked out of cashing out.)

I’m also hearing that Ivey had separated himself from Full Tilt’s PR people. He didn’t feel that they had his interests at heart, so he looked for people who did. 

Once Black Friday hit, there is talk that Ivey wanted to be involved in handling the situation, planning to fly to Dublin where the company is based. But Ivey was repeatedly pushed aside. The comparison I heard was that the “adults were handling it.” Based on his bombshell statement, apparently Ivey felt slighted by this. 

Full Tilt’s most recent public statements (made by FTPDoug on 2+2) paint a bad picture. They claim they’re not broke, and that the business is running fine in international markets. They then claim that they can’t pay back their U.S. customers until they raise additional capital. I don’t know about you, but where I come from, that’s pretty much the definition of “broke.”

Full Tilt is not fine right now. The fact that one of their biggest ambassadors (if not an actual stockholder) is openly suing them on behalf of players is a sign that Full Tilt is in a world of trouble beyond the DOJ indictment. 

Once again, if you are a non-U.S. player and can request a withdrawal of your Full Tilt bankroll, I suggest that you do so immediately. 

The people who are running Full Tilt right now have screwed up past the point of no return. I’ve heard talk that Phil Ivey has been angry with how they’ve handled things for a while, so you have to imagine that he has given Full Tilt ample warning to take care of things before he went with the nuclear option. Whatever deadline he set for them (the start of the WSOP?), they missed it. And it’s impossible now for Full Tilt to go back and make amends with Phil Ivey.

If Phil Ivey doesn't trust Full Tilt, why should you?