The Prop Bet in the Pool:
Would You Stand in a Pool Overnight for 12 Hours for $15,000?

By BJ Nemeth

Shortly after action ended last night (when the WPT final table was set with the final six players), an interesting prop bet developed out at the pool, just 20 yards from the tournament room. Expecting there to be little action in the side games, Matt Giannetti (online name: "hazards21") agreed to spend 12 straight hours in the deep end of the Club Med pool for $15,000.

Here were the basic terms:

Clause 1. He couldn't leave the deep end for any reason or come within 5 feet of the side of the pool -- clear and obvious boundary markers were agreed upon. There was no need to tread water, because Giannetti is tall enough to comfortably stand with the water coming to just below his underarms. (The deep end isn't that deep.)

Clause 2. Whatever clothes he wore into the pool, he had to continue wearing the entire time; he couldn't add or remove any clothing. Also, he couldn't remove his shirt and drape it over his head; he had to wear it the same way he was wearing it when he went in the pool.

Clause 3. He was allowed food, water, and sunscreen, which someone would deliver to him in the water.

Clause 4. He was only allowed to ask how much time he had left 12 times.

Clause 5. He went into the water at 12:00 midnight last night, and had to stay in the water until 12:00 noon today.

There may have been a few more clauses that I'm not aware of, but those are the basics. Giannetti wore a t-shirt and swim trunks -- no hat, and no shoes.

Who was in on this bet? Giannetti had $15,000 on the line against David Williams, Lee Markholt, and one other player (I don't know who).

But that's just the main bet. There was far more side action among other gamblers, including Nenad Medic, Mike "timex" McDonald, WPT Final Tablist Erik Cajelais (they bet Giannetti would make it), and Isaac "westmenloAA" Baron (who bet against him).

McDonald stayed out by the pool for the duration of the bet, watching over his investment and delivering snacks, water, and sunscreen. (Giannetti requested warm water to keep his body temperature up, and spent much of his time pacing around to keep his blood flowing and avoid muscle cramps.)

Giannetti was in great spirits last night around 2:00 am (when I first showed up), and there were still crowds of people gathered debating the prop bet. Some said it would be easy, while others were convinced that the water would lower his body temperature to the point of hypothermia. A few people thought he'd simply fall victim to boredom and exhaustion.

When I stopped by the pool this morning around 10:30 am (on my way to breakfast), he was still going strong, although Lee Markholt was in the water with him, jokingly splashing water on him while Giannetti cried "Foul! Foul!" Giannetti had a rough early morning (when he said it was the coldest), but he appeared to be in good health and had a clear mind -- victory was a foregone conclusion. Giannetti said he was offered a buyout in the morning, but the amount was so low (I think he said $4,000-$5,000) and he had gone so far that he didn't even consider it.

Around 11:45 am, a large crowd gathered to witness the home stretch. Nenad Medic laughed as he pointed out that only those who had sided with Giannetti in the bet (minutes from victory) were present -- those who would have to pay up were nowhere to be found.

The figurative clock struck twelve with little fanfare, because there was no official timekeeper. To be on the safe side, Giannetti stayed in the water until every person present showed their watches past noon. (One guy's watch was about 2-3 minutes slower than the others, but Giannetti waited it out.)

When it was clear that 12:00 noon was behind us, one of the Club Med employees got on the loudspeaker to do a ten-second countdown, and the crowd chanted along. "Five … four … three … two … one!" The loudspeaker immediately kicked into Queen's "We Are the Champions" as Giannetti climbed out of the pool, victorious. The first words out of his mouth -- "Could somebody please get me a towel?"

Giannetti sat back on a lounge chair while a woman carefully dried him off, taking extra care with his especially wrinkly feet, which looked so rough that several people took photos. There was no comment about the degree to which he experienced Costanza-like "shrinkage." Isaac Baron showed up a few minutes later, unaware of the time. When he learned that Giannetti made it, he immediately went back to his room for cash to pay off his action.

So that's the Prop Bet in the Pool. Photos and a winner's interview with the WPT's Kimberly Lansing will be posted soon. (To see two videos from this prop bet, click here.)

Aside from the press releases from Epic Poker, I knew nothing about the Velocity channel. But earlier today, the New York Times published an article by Brian Stelter titled "Discovery Woos the Man With Cash for Cars, Sports and Fancy Toys":

Replacing the low-rated HD Theater on Oct. 4, Velocity is being billed as a high-end men’s lifestyle channel about fast cars, fancy auctions and football stars.

The HD Theater channel currently reaches about 40 million cable subscribers, and presumably, Velocity will reach those same people.

“It’s not going to have a huge audience,” said David Zaslav, the chief executive of Discovery Communications. But, he asserted, it doesn’t necessarily need to; if Velocity can attract the relatively elusive Rich Man, it can charge a premium to advertisers in much the same way that CNBC does.

That's a lofty goal, but later in the article, Discovery Communications is a bit more realistic about who their new channel will actually attract:

In part that’s because the channel knows that many of Velocity’s viewers will be aspirational — the men who, in Mr. Scanlon’s words, “drive a Pontiac, but are going to drive a Porsche.”

While Velocity is a relatively small cable channel, with far fewer subscribers than ESPN (home of the World Series of Poker) and FSN (home of the World Poker Tour), that's not a bad fit for a new show (Epic Poker) that is just starting to build its brand and make a name for itself. A new network with a relatively small reach means less pressure on the early ratings, and more time for the show to build an audience.

It's easier to be a big fish in a small pond.

Of course, on CBS, things will be quite different. Even if, as rumored, Epic is paying for their timeslots on CBS, there will be pressure to bring in decent ratings, or the show might not get picked up for a second season, paid or not.

The two different networks make a certain amount of sense for Epic's programming. The smaller channel, Velocity, will be showing episodes that focus on the pre-final table action. That will appeal to a much smaller demographic, but one that is more willing to seek out the show.

The larger channel, CBS, will be broadcasting episodes about the final tables, which will appeal to a much larger group of casual fans. (The episodes that premier on CBS will also air as reruns on Velocity.)

Fortunately for Epic, their first event seemed to be an instant poker classic. The 6-handed final table featured Jason Mercier, Erik Seidel, Gavin Smith, Huckleberry Seed, Hasan Habib, and Chino Rheem. While Rheem may not have been CBS's first choice as Epic's first winner, the heads-up battle between Rheem and Seidel was quite dramatic.

The episodes are being produced by 441 Productions, the Emmy Award-winning team that produced the WSOP on ESPN from 2003-2010. Early buzz from the producers is that the episodes from the first Epic Poker event are among the best poker shows they've ever done -- and they've done a lot.

So when the first episodes of the Epic Poker League air, and the ratings come in, don't worry about the numbers for the Velocity channel. CBS is where the real pressure is.

(Better-Late-Than-Never Disclosure: I work as a freelance tournament reporter/photographer for the Epic Poker League, just as I do for the World Poker Tour, the World Series of Poker, and others. As always, the opinions expressed here are entirely my own, and do not represent any of the companies that occasionally employ me.)

That feeling was strengthened a few days later when Tilt and Stars signed identical deals with the DOJ promising to return funds to U.S. players. 

But every week since then, Full Tilt and PokerStars have drifted further and further apart in how they responded to Black Friday. 

PokerStars quickly provided a clear FAQ to American players, and began payouts a week or two later. Most players have long since received their money and had the funds cleared into their bank accounts. (I got my $156.37 back.) 

Full Tilt issued a follow-up press release stating that there were some accounting issues with the frozen bank accounts that might delay the player refunds. This was the first sign that Stars and Tilt were in different situations. 

Since then, it has only gotten worse. Once PokerStars paid back their U.S. players, the pressure increased on Full Tilt to do the same, but they’ve made little progress since then. They promise an update, usually released by FTPDoug on the 2+2 forums, but when it comes it never provides any insight into the key question -- when will U.S. players get their money back? 

One of the early updates was promised for May 5th, but when it was posted, it provided no answers. I took to my Twitter feed and posted this:

May 5, 2011: The day I recommend non-U.S. players get their money off Full Tilt as quickly as they can.

That caused a heated response, as you might imagine, as I was bombarded by tweets and text messages. I continued to argue my point, and repeated it again after Full Tilt’s next non-update 11 days later. 

A lot of people were asking if I had inside info -- I didn’t. I based my recommendation solely on their own updates. Tilt claimed their were no problems, but I couldn’t come up with any scenario for their actions and comments that wasn’t bad news for U.S. players. And that meant that at some point, it would be bad news for non-U.S. players. 

That point may have been reached yesterday, on Day 1 of the 2011 WSOP.

Phil Ivey Drops a Bomb

When Bluff Magazine asked industry insiders to vote for the most powerful people in poker, I didn’t rank Phil Ivey very high. My reasoning was that while Ivey held a lot of potential power to influence the industry, he never exercised it. (Contrast that with Daniel Negreanu, who often uses his high profile to push for change in the industry.)

Well, Phil Ivey exercised his power yesterday, and the entire poker world felt it. 

Here’s what Phil Ivey posted to his Facebook page, and later, to PhilIvey.com:

For many years, I have been proud to call myself a poker player. This great sport has taken me to places I only imagined going and I have been blessed with much success. It is therefore with deep regret that I believe I am compelled to release the following statement.

I am deeply disappointed and embarrassed that Full Tilt players have not been paid money they are owed. I am equally embarrassed that as a result many players cannot compete in tournaments and have suffered economic harm. I am not playing in the World Series of Poker as I do not believe it is fair that I compete when others cannot. I am doing everything I can to seek a solution to the problem as quickly as possible.

My name and reputation have been dragged through the mud, through the inactivity and indecision of others and on behalf of all poker players I refuse to remain silent any longer. I have electronically filed a lawsuit against Tiltware related to the unsettled player accounts. As I am sure the public can imagine, this was not an easy decision for me.I wholeheartedly refuse to accept non-action as to repayment of players funds and I am angered that people who have supported me throughout my career have been treated so poorly.

I sincerely hope this statement will ignite those capable of resolving the problems into immediate action and would like to clarify that until a solution is reached that cements the security of all players, both US and International, I will, as I have for the last six weeks, dedicate the entirety of my time and efforts to finding a solution for those who have been wronged by the painfully slow process of repayment.

First, that is an awkwardly written press release, and raises as many questions as it answers. Where did he “electronically file” a lawsuit against Tiltware, and on what grounds? That information would enter the public record anyway -- Associated Press reporter Oskar Garcia (@OskarGarcia on Twitter) has already confirmed it was filed this morning in Clark County District Court, and should have a copy in his hands today.

Update 1: The notice of filing is on the Clark County District Court website. I can't directly link to it, but you can see a screenshot of it by clicking here.

Update 2: AP reporter Oskar Garcia has filed his first story on the subject, and has apparently read the details of the lawsuit that Ivey filed this morning. You can read Garcia’s story by clicking here.

The Medium Affects the Message

For reasons not yet known, Phil Ivey chose to drop his bomb on, of all places, Facebook. Ivey has an official Facebook page, and he seems to have even posted an occasional update. But Ivey is famous for not giving a crap about social media, and I have heard him question whether he had a Twitter account on two separate occasions, while others were actively tweeting on his behalf.

For Ivey to release a bombshell like this through Facebook didn’t make any sense, and the awkward wording of the press release led a lot of people in the poker media to question whether or not it was authentic. The timing was also weird -- about 8:30 pm PT / 11:30 pm ET. 

If Ivey wanted to get the maximum impact out of this statement, he should have released it yesterday morning, before the WSOP got underway. If he wanted to wait until after play began (either because he hadn’t fully made up his mind or wanted to respect the WSOP’s first day), he should have released it this morning (WSOP Day 2). 

Ivey and his closest advisors should have also hired a publicist to handle this. For a one-time fee of about $1,000, Ivey could have had somebody clean up his press release so it makes more sense, and include relevant information so people could write about it with maximum impact from the beginning. Releasing the statement as six separate posts on his Facebook page was amateurish -- that’s how high schoolers break up with their girlfriends, not how multimillionaires sue billion-dollar companies. 

Releasing his statement this way (late in the evening of Day 1 on Facebook) watered down the impact of Ivey’s message. ESPN is talking about Ivey on SportsCenter today, but without a properly-written press release, they don’t have enough facts to talk about it as much as they’d like. Handled properly, Oskar Garcia could have had an AP story out on the wire to tell Ivey’s story minutes after Ivey issued the statement. No matter how Ivey released this statement, it would have a huge impact. But it could have been even bigger. 

Why Is Phil Ivey So Angry?

Disclaimer:  I have no first-hand sources for the Phil Ivey information in this section, and don’t have contact with anyone in Phil Ivey’s inner circle. My sources are second- and third-hand, but I trust them and believe in their access to information like this. 

I’ve gotten word that Phil Ivey’s anger actually pre-dates the Black Friday scandal. There is talk that Ivey wanted to cash out big money from Full Tilt, and was urged to keep it there. I don’t know how much is in Ivey’s online bankroll, nor do I have any information about whether or not he has any ownership shares in the company. My educated guess is that he has a lot of both. By “cashing out,” I’m not sure if that means he wanted to sell his stock or withdrawal a majority of his bankroll, or both. There are plenty of legitimate, non-conspiracy reasons to do either one. (So it doesn’t mean that Ivey had “inside info” that Black Friday was coming -- especially since he was apparently talked out of cashing out.)

I’m also hearing that Ivey had separated himself from Full Tilt’s PR people. He didn’t feel that they had his interests at heart, so he looked for people who did. 

Once Black Friday hit, there is talk that Ivey wanted to be involved in handling the situation, planning to fly to Dublin where the company is based. But Ivey was repeatedly pushed aside. The comparison I heard was that the “adults were handling it.” Based on his bombshell statement, apparently Ivey felt slighted by this. 

Full Tilt’s most recent public statements (made by FTPDoug on 2+2) paint a bad picture. They claim they’re not broke, and that the business is running fine in international markets. They then claim that they can’t pay back their U.S. customers until they raise additional capital. I don’t know about you, but where I come from, that’s pretty much the definition of “broke.”

Full Tilt is not fine right now. The fact that one of their biggest ambassadors (if not an actual stockholder) is openly suing them on behalf of players is a sign that Full Tilt is in a world of trouble beyond the DOJ indictment. 

Once again, if you are a non-U.S. player and can request a withdrawal of your Full Tilt bankroll, I suggest that you do so immediately. 

The people who are running Full Tilt right now have screwed up past the point of no return. I’ve heard talk that Phil Ivey has been angry with how they’ve handled things for a while, so you have to imagine that he has given Full Tilt ample warning to take care of things before he went with the nuclear option. Whatever deadline he set for them (the start of the WSOP?), they missed it. And it’s impossible now for Full Tilt to go back and make amends with Phil Ivey.

If Phil Ivey doesn't trust Full Tilt, why should you?

The day the poker world has feared since the UIGEA passed in 2006 has finally arrived.

On Friday, April 15th, while Dr. Pauly was busy working down in Peru, the poker shit hit the fan as the U.S. Department of Justice released an indictment against PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker, and UB/Absolute.

By Friday evening, all three sites had their .com domains seized, along with 76 bank accounts. PokerStars and Full Tilt stopped allowing U.S. customers, and if you tried to withdraw money from Tilt, you got a message that read, “Players located within the United States will temporarily be restricted from withdrawing from Full Tilt Poker.”

Most of the poker world spent the weekend panicking, with rumors and misinformation floating around forums and on Twitter. I’ll do my best to break down the situation so you’ll know not only what happened, but what is likely to happen next.

Keep in mind that even though I am a freelance employee of the WPT (I'm their lead tournament reporter), these views are entirely my own and do not reflect any positions or views of the World Poker Tour. Also, Dr. Pauly's take on some of these issues might be different than mine, though I expect we'll hear his thoughts more fully when he returns to the U.S. later this week. 

I. THE INDICTMENT: APRIL 15TH, 2011

When the UIGEA passed in 2006, it was designed to stop online gambling by cutting off the flow of money. Since it was passed, several payment processors were shut down, including Neteller. As the legitimate payment processors were forced out, shadier and shadier operations stepped in. 

And, according to the indictment, that forced the online poker sites to get creative in less-than-legal ways to keep the money flowing.

The U.S. Attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York has been working on a case against online poker for a long, long time. According to this article, it seems that some of the key evidence came from Daniel Tzvetkoff, an Aussie who was arrested for online payment processing in 2010 -- and then cut a deal and turned witness for the prosecution. For online poker players, this guy may have replaced Russ Hamilton as Poker’s Public Enemy #1.

On April 15th, the Feds sprung their trap, making several arrests and seizing 76 bank accounts and the .com domains. The full indictment is available online, along with a shorter version that reads more like a press release.

The following 11 people were named as defendants, with charges of “Conspiracy to Violate the UIGEA,” “Operation of Illegal Gambling Business,” “Conspiracy to Commit Bank Fraud and Wire Fraud,” and “Money Laundering Conspiracy.”

PokerStars:  Isai Scheinberg, Paul Tate

Full Tilt Poker:  Raymond Bitar, Nelson Burtnick

Absolute Poker (UB):  Scott Tom, Brent Beckley

Payment Processors:  Ryan Lang, Ira Rubin, Bradley Franzen, Chad Elie, John Campos

As you can see, there were two people indicted for each of the three online poker sites. The first name listed is the top dog at each site (or “principal decision-maker”), and the second name is the person most directly responsible for payment processing. (Notice a theme yet? Follow the money …)

At its core, the charges aren’t about the legality of online poker -- they are about the movement of the money. According to the Feds, the online poker sites were doing some crazy shit to sneak our deposits past the UIGEA -- like disguising deposits as payments to non-existent companies that sold jewelry and golf balls. If this information is true, it seems like a fairly easy conviction in terms of fraud and money laundering. 

You’ve probably also noticed a few things missing from the list of defendants -- smaller U.S.-facing sites like Bodog & Cake aren’t mentioned, nor are any of the high-profile players rumored to have partial ownership of affected sites. While they aren’t included in this indictment, they aren’t out of the woods yet. As arrests are made and more evidence is gathered, other indictments might follow.

Of the 11 people listed in the indictment, the three who live in the U.S. (Elie, Campos, Franzen) have already been arrested. The other eight defendants are currently overseas, and the Feds are working with foreign law enforcement agencies and Interpol to extradite them back to the U.S. The Feds are also trying to seize additional “criminal proceeds” in foreign countries. While foreign countries aren’t likely to extradite people for running an online gaming site, the charges of money laundering and bank fraud are much more serious.

The Feds are also seeking $3 billion in civil money laundering penalties. Why tax poker players when you can just take the money directly?

II. THE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS ON THE POKER WORLD

Online poker in the United States is dead. (At least for a while.)

PokerStars and Full Tilt have already shut down real-money games for all U.S. players. UB and Absolute are reportedly still accepting U.S. players, though most people expect that to be temporary -- and not recommended for U.S. residents. (I haven’t had any success logging into UB from Atlanta to test it.)

Even if poker is eventually legalized in the United States, it’s unlikely that any of these three sites will ever return. Seriously, do you expect any gaming commission to license a company that has been charged with fraud and money laundering?

If you’re a U.S. player and have money on these sites, the general consensus seems to be that you’ll probably get it back -- though it may take months instead of weeks. Be patient. If they want to continue operating in international markets (and they do), they’ll eventually return your money. Their entire business model is based on the trust of their customers -- nobody would ever send money to a poker site with a proven record of not sending it back.

Of course, there are no guarantees, and I know I’ll feel a lot better when I finally receive my (relatively small) checks from these sites -- and those checks successfully clear my bank.

There are some smaller sites serving the U.S. that weren’t included in the indictment, like Bodog and the Cake network, but I wouldn’t recommend playing on those sites if you’re in the U.S. The risks are just too high right now. At least one smaller site, Victory Poker, has already taken action to stop serving U.S. customers. 

Repercussions spread throughout the industry over the weekend:

1.  Indicted sites have moved their homepages to new domains.

Since the U.S. government seized their .com domains, all three sites have moved their homepages. You can now find them at PokerStars.eu, FullTiltPoker.co.uk, UBPoker.eu, and AbsolutePoker.eu. (To see the DOJ’s notice of domain seizure for yourself, visit their original .com web addresses.)

2.  Guaranteed prizepools for online tournaments are dropping. 

Non-U.S. players can still play on PokerStars and Full Tilt, though the guaranteed tournaments aren’t as big as they used to be. The PokerStars Sunday Million had a $1.5 million guarantee last week, and it dropped down to $1 million this week. Over on Full Tilt, FTOPS event #1 dropped from a $3 million guarantee to $1 million. This has affected daily guaranteed tournaments as well.

3.  The recently-announced Onyx Cup has been cancelled by Full Tilt. 

The Onyx Cup was only announced a month ago as a series of ultra-high-stakes tournaments with buy-ins ranging from $100,000 to $300,000. Given the situation, it’s no surprise that it’s been cancelled.

4.  The Wynn Resorts and Fertitta Interactive pulled out of their pending deals with PokerStars and Full Tilt, respectively. 

These deals were both announced in March, and were hailed as landmarks because they formed partnerships between the online poker rooms and brick-and-mortar operations. Well, those deals are dead -- nobody wants to be associated with these sites now.

5.  There will be fewer poker shows on TV. 

The NBC Heads-Up Poker Championship aired as scheduled on Sunday afternoon, with (pre-paid) PokerStars.net commercials during most of the breaks. One advertiser should be fairly easy to replace, so the NBC-HUPC should continue its broadcast as scheduled. 

Andrew Feldman of ESPN.com confirmed on Sunday that ESPN would still be at the WSOP, and I’d be shocked if the WSOP Main Event disappeared from TV coverage anytime soon. The World Poker Tour isn’t as strong as the WSOP, but I’m confident that the WPT will continue broadcasting on FSN this season and begin Season X tournaments after the WSOP. (DISCLOSURE: I work for the WPT in a freelance capacity as their lead tournament reporter.) 

Other poker TV shows are more uncertain. “The Big Game” and “High Stakes Poker” are fully funded by PokerStars and “Poker After Dark” is fully funded by Full Tilt -- these shows will probably go on hiatus and stop producing new episodes. I’m not sure when we’ll stop seeing these shows on TV, but my understanding is that some of their time slots are paid for by the online sites, so some of them could go off the air as early as this week. 

6.  The North American Poker Tour (NAPT) is probably dead. 

With live casinos distancing themselves from the indicted sites, the NAPT (owned by PokerStars) will probably be shut down or postponed indefinitely. There are unconfirmed reports that ESPN is trying to find programming to replace NAPT episodes scheduled to air this week. Even if those episodes get on the air, the recent NAPT Mohegan Sun (with the spectacular back-to-back victories of Vanessa Selbst and Jason Mercier) will likely be the last NAPT event ever held in the United States. 

7.  The European Poker Tour (EPT) and other non-U.S. PokerStars tours are probably fine. 

Right now, there are no signs that the EPT will have any problems. There won’t be any online qualifiers from the U.S., though it’s possible that more American pros will make the overseas trip to play in these events. 

8.  The World Poker Tour should be fine. 

The WPT is actually positioned fairly well, as it hasn’t been dependent on online qualifiers for several years (one reason why field sizes have been smaller in recent seasons). The WPT is owned on the corporate level by PartyPoker, which played by the UIGEA rules, left the U.S. market in 2006, and cut a $105 million deal in 2009 as part of a “non-prosecution agreement.” PartyPoker and the WPT appear to face no legal danger.

It’ll be interesting to see the effect on field sizes, whether they shrink (as players and backers can’t access online funds) or grow (as more online players transition to live play). The next WPT event will be held near Miami, Florida, and it starts on April 27th. We’ll know more then. 

9.  The World Series of Poker is in really good shape. 

Harrah’s/Caesars has been very good about playing by the UIGEA rules, and kept their noses clean. If and when poker is legalized in the United States, WSOP.com becomes even more valuable because it won’t have to compete in the U.S. with former powerhouses PokerStars or Full Tilt. 

Everyone expects the WSOP Main Event to have a much smaller field this year, as online satellites usually funnel a few thousand players into the event. Online satellites have effectively stopped in the U.S., and players who already won seats may have trouble accessing their funds in time. I’m expecting at least 5,000 entrants, but not a lot more than that. That’s a healthy number, and it’ll still create an exciting event. 

While the WSOP Main Event will see fewer players, turnout for the entire WSOP (counting non-bracelet events and cash games) may actually increase. Former online grinders may head out to Las Vegas for the summer to take part in the constant cash games and tournament action. 

10.  Sponsored mid-level American pros can kiss their sponsorships goodbye. 

Now that PokerStars and Full Tilt have been shut out of the U.S. market, they have no reason to market to U.S. players. Take a good look at the long list of Full Tilt Red Pros and Team PokerStars Pros -- most of the ones from the U.S. will not be wearing those patches at the WSOP. The international players will likely keep their deals, as will the biggest names with international appeal like Phil Ivey and Daniel Negreanu.

The topic of player sponsorships is covered best by super-agent Brian Balsbaugh (who reps the biggest players in the game) over at Poker Royalty: “Black Friday & Poker Player Sponsorships.”

11.  The Annie Duke-Jeffrey Pollack professional league is sort of hurt and sort of helped by this. 

The key thing for Annie Duke’s league has always been securing a good TV deal -- without that, it’s hard to see the business model working. As mentioned above, the TV poker landscape is about to be a lot less crowded, which might make this league slightly easier to sell to a cable network. On the other hand, any channel that picks up this show won’t be able to sell ad time to Full Tilt or PokerStars. 

Many of the U.S. players who qualify for tour cards will probably be the same ones who just lost online sponsorships, making them much more eager to support and participate in a professional poker league like this. 

12.  The Poker Media -- Shit Rolls Downhill. 

While this situation sucks for the online players who were riding the semi-legal gravy train for a while, it sucks even worse for those in the poker media, who struggle to get by even at the best of times. PokerStars and Full Tilt fund a lot of the poker media (directly and indirectly), and there will be a lot of (a lot more?) poker writers and reporters out of a job by the time the WSOP rolls around. 

Bluff, Card Player, and PokerNews will probably survive this, though employees should expect layoffs. Some of the smaller media sites are more vulnerable, and may be forced to shut down for good.

If you want to show support for Dr. Pauly, purchase a few copies of “Lost Vegas.” (There are a few links at the top right of this page.) Pauly’s book makes a great gift -- I did most of my Christmas shopping by ordering a handful of copies and giving them to my non-poker friends and family so they could get a behind-the-scenes look at the world I live and work in. (Even people who don’t know poker enjoyed the book.) If “Lost Vegas” sells enough copies, then we can expect a follow-up book from Dr. Pauly describing the chaos that was unleashed when this apocalypse hit the poker industry. 

III.  WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?

While many of us have expected something like this for years, it’s still shocking. Just because you know you’re about to get punched in the face doesn’t make it hurt any less. 

We’re still in the initial shock-and-denial phase, though we should get more information on the situation in the next week or two. That will paint a clearer picture of what the next year or two will look like. Having said that, here’s my look into poker’s future ...

As I said earlier, online poker in the United States is dead. (At least for a while.)

All signs indicate that PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/Absolute will fight these allegations in court, though that’s unlikely to change anything in the short term. Even a settlement would likely force them to leave the U.S. market, and if they were to somehow win in court, it would likely take more than a year.

In the U.S., our best hope is regulation and full legalization. 

As bad as things seem right now, these indictments don’t take legalization off the table. Several states are already pushing bills to allow intrastate poker (where Californians can only play other Californians, for example), and with no other legal options, those intrastate poker sites will probably attract a lot of players (and tax revenue). Hopefully, the pro-poker Congressmen can use the coming intrastate examples to get some more votes on our side. Arguing for additional tax revenue (even from gambling) couldn’t hurt in a Congress struggling with budgets and rebuilding the economy. 

So we may have intrastate poker sites popping up in a few states in 2011 and 2012, but the earliest I expect anything to happen on the federal level is 2013. Online poker may be too tumultuous for Congress to act right now, and 2012 is a presidential election year, making it unlikely for lawmakers to touch an issue like this.

What does the future look like outside of the United States?

As we all know, UB and Absolute Poker have had problems on top of problems on top of problems. The company survived massive cheating scandals, but may not survive this. If any of the big three online sites were to fail as a result of this, it’s UB/Absolute. 

Full Tilt and Pokerstars should both survive long-term in the international market. Obviously, Stars has a big advantage over Tilt here, as they had a smaller percentage of U.S. customers and are well-positioned with regional tours like the EPT, the LAPT, etc. 

However, there’s a chance that international players will consider these sites to be too risky while the U.S. government goes after them, and move over to safer options like PartyPoker. Remember, Party was the biggest poker site in the world when the UIGEA hit in 2006 PartyPoker followed the rules and pulled out of the U.S. market, and in 2009, even paid $105 million to the U.S. as part of a “non-prosecution” agreement.

Now that Tilt and Stars are shut out of the U.S. market, they will need to compete more directly with PartyPoker and other non-U.S. sites like Betfair, Ladbrokes, and Everest. If they wanted to be dicks, these sites could start running ads like “We’ve never been indicted,” or “Our customers’ bankrolls have never been seized by the U.S. government.” 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Friday, April 15, 2011 is a day that will live in poker infamy, and history will mark events as happening before or after it the same way it has with Chris Moneymaker’s WSOP victory.

“Remember when so many people showed up for Day 1d of the WSOP Main Event that they had to turn people away? Of course, that was before the Poker-pocalypse.” Or “Black Friday,” or “4/15,” or whatever people eventually settle on calling it. It’s too bad that the Feds didn’t wait until Wednesday, or we could have referred to our day of doom as “4/20” -- a much easier number for most poker players to remember.

Without any warning, professional online players in the U.S. have lost their careers -- and in some cases, at least temporarily, their bankrolls. Many of them have no transferable job skills and huge gaps on their resumes, in an economy already facing an unemployment rate around 9.2%. 

It’s a bleak picture any way you look at it -- some will move to Vegas to play live games, some will move out of the country to continue playing online, and some will leave the poker world and never come back.

Those of us who stay in poker will continue our efforts pushing for legalized online poker, as it seems to be the only hope for U.S. players. But while there might be the light of legalization at the end of the tunnel, it’s probably going to be a long, dark tunnel. 

There will be a lot of pain, on all sides and all levels, because the money from online poker flowed like water into all crevices of the poker industry. Things will be in limbo for a while before the rebuilding process can begin -- but make no mistake, the poker industry will rebuild. 

When the poker world was shook to its core on Friday, April 15th, the guys at Donkdown Radio (Bryan Micon and Todd Witteles) fired up an emergency episode to discuss the issues. Others followed suit, including some of us at PokerRoad, where Court Harrington hosted a special episode of PokerRoad Radio with me and ESPN's Gary Wise as guests.

Around that time, Marco Valerio (@agentmarco on Twitter) began recording a special episode of the QuadJacks podcast. But while Donkdown Radio and PokerRoad Radio wound down, Marco just kept going. And going.

And going.

Two full days later, Marco is still on the air (updated link: click here to listen), with a large cast of rotating guests keeping things fresh around him as he battles fatigue but refuses to give up the microphone. Jessica Welman called it a "Radio Filibuster," and I think that's the perfect description.

There have been a wide variety of guests from the poker world, including the CEOs of two online poker sites (ChiliPoker and VictoryPoker), players, lawyers, and media. At times the talk is serious, at times the talk is silly, but it's almost always been compelling.

As I write this, I'm on the air with the old "Poker Beat" crew -- Jess Welman, Dan Michalski, and Gary Wise.

Eventually, Marco will need to get some sleep. But I expect the show will continue on without him. How long will it go on? A week? More? Only time will tell. But I'll be listening.

1. If you live in the U.S. and have money deposited at PokerStars, Full Tilt, or UB/Absolute:

Cash out all of your money as quickly as possible.

There is no sign that any of the three indicted sites will be able to serve U.S. customers anytime soon, so there is no reason to keep even a single dollar there. But if you wait to cash out, you will be more likely to run into problems -- the Feds could put a freeze on payouts, or the sites could change their cash-out policies.

The sooner you act, the more confident I am that you'll get your money back in full. Stop reading this and do it right now.

2.  If you live in the U.S. and have money deposited at unaffected sites like Bodog, Cake, etc.:

While these sites haven't been indicted, the writing is on the wall and the other shoe could drop at any point. If you have a large amount of money deposited here, you may want to withdraw most of it -- only leave enough online to cover your recreational online poker needs, but not so much that it would hurt your bankroll to have it disappear.

If you don't plan on playing online in the next few weeks, I'd withdraw it all.

3.  If you live outside the U.S. and have money deposited at PokerStars, Full Tilt, or UB/Absolute:

These companies are under indictment from the U.S. Department of Justice, which is known for going after the money of their targets. If you have a large amount of money at these sites, you may want to withdraw most of it, just in case. I'd recommend keeping only the minimum online that you need to cover your short-term needs (perhaps 2-3 weeks). 

Once you get a clearer picture of the future of their non-U.S. status, you can always deposit more funds as you need them. But there is too much uncertainty with these companies to leave a large portion of your bankroll in their hands.

4.  If you live outside the U.S. and have money deposited at sites that haven't accepted U.S. players since the UIGEA (PartyPoker, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Everest, etc.):

You should be unaffected by these U.S. indictments, and your money should be as safe today as it was a week ago. Your friends in the United States are envious.

Some people may accuse me of fear-mongering, or creating a panic with these recommendations. They remember the scene in "It's a Wonderful Life" where Jimmy Stewart calms everyone down and gets them to cooperate to avoid a run on the banks.

This is not that situation.

The online poker sites are not Jimmy Stewart, and they don't personally care if you lose your bankroll (or your house). They will do what's in their own best interests, and you should do what's in your best interest.

Update at 3:45 am: Full Tilt Poker released a software update today, which seems to restrict U.S. players from withdrawing any funds. When I attempt to withdraw my $12.62, I get the following message:

Players located within the United States will temporarily be restricted from withdrawing from Full Tilt Poker.

We would like to assure you that your funds are safe and secure. Unused Tournament Tickets or Tournament Dollars (T$) can be converted to real money - please contact support@fulltiltpoker.co.uk for more information.

Here's hoping that the situation really is temporary. If/when Full Tilt allows withdrawals again, get your money out as quickly as you can.

Update at 1:20 pm ET: Business Insider has an article on this topic called "Will Online Poker Players Ever See Their Money Again?"

If you are in the United States, and don't already see the same thing, you should within the next 24 hours.

Both PokerStars and Full Tilt have issued statements about the situation. (Thanks to @Kevmath for posting screenshots of these statements on Twitter; I've transcribed them below in full.)

PokerStars:

Important Notice from PokerStars

As you may have heard, we have had to suspend real money poker services to people based in the US due to legal developments there. These developments are confined to the US and do not have any impact on your ability to continue using our services.

Please be assured player balances are safe. There is no cause for concern. For all customers outside the US it is business as usual.

The PokerStars website has been moved to www.pokerstars.eu, and our Support email address is now support@pokerstars.eu. We apologize to our players for any inconvenience caused by this disruption

Please be aware that we are currently experiencing a very high volume of emails, so our response times are delayed. We will answer player emails as soon as possible. Thank you for your patience and understanding in this matter.

Full Tilt Poker:

Statement from Full Tilt Poker Regarding Recent Check Withdrawal Issues

In light of recent events involving the freezing of certain accounts, Full Tilt Poker would like to assure all players that their funds remain safe and secure. Processing of both deposit and withdrawal requests is proceeding as normal and is still available to all of our players.

All players who were affected by the current situation have had their funds returned to their accounts and all new withdrawal requests are processing normally. We assure all players on Full Tilt Poker that your online playing experience will not change and that you will be able to both deposit and withdraw funds as needed. Your money remains safe, secure and accessible at all times.

Full Tilt Poker remains committed to the protection of our players’ security and legal rights, and will continue to provide the best and safest online poker room available worldwide.

Full Tilt Poker also issued a full press release:

Full Tilt Poker Supports Poker Players And Its Chief Executive

Dublin Ireland (April 15, 2011) -- Full Tilt Poker is saddened by today's changes against its CEO Raymond Bitar and offers its full support to Mr. Bitar and Nelson Burtnick.

Online poker is a game of skill enjoyed by tens of millions of people in the United States and across the world. And, Full Tilt Poker remains as committed as ever to preserving the rights of those players to play the game they love online.

Mr. Bitar and Full Tilt Poker believe online poker is legal -- a position also taken by some of the best legal minds in the United States. Full Tilt Poker is, and has always been committed to preserving the integrity of the game and abiding by the law.

"I am surprised and disappointed by the government's decision to bring these charges. I look forward to Mr. Burtnick's and my exoneration," said Mr. Bitar.

Unfortunately, as a result of this action, Full Tilt Poker has decided that it must suspend "real money" play in the United States until this case is resolved. However, Full Tilt Poker will continue to provide peer-to-peer online poker services outside of the United States.

There’s nothing too surprising in these statements. The sites are doing everything they can to assure their customers (especially their non-U.S. customers) that their money is safe so there isn’t a run-on-the-banks situation. In the United States, the run on the online poker banks has been underway since this story first broke in the afternoon.

Stay tuned for a post with my recommendations on what to do with your online poker funds.

Authorities in New York City [have] unsealed an indictment charging 11 people with bank fraud and illegal gambling in a prosecution of the three largest Internet poker companies.

...

They've identified the companies as PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker.

My Initial Thoughts

This story is developing rapidly, but it seems to me that this will likely become the biggest story in modern poker history -- bigger than the UIGEA, and bigger than Moneymaker.

Having said that, this isn't the end of the poker world. Poker has been around for more than a century, and it will be around next week. I expect the WPT Seminole Hard Rock Showdown to be fairly unaffected (though some players may choose to play or not play based on today's news), and the WSOP will still be the event we all love (and love to hate).

Of course, the field size for the WSOP Main Event could be dramatically affected, as online satellites in the U.S. may immediately disappear, and people who have already won seats may have trouble accessing their funds.

What Happened, Exactly?

Here's a quote from the indictment (you can read it for yourself here in PDF format):

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said: "As charged, these defendants concocted an elaborate criminal fraud scheme, alternately tricking some U.S. banks and effectively bribing others to assure the continued flow of billions in illegal gambling profits."

There are 11 individuals named as defendants, seven of them listed as U.S. residents. The defendants fall into two categories; some are charged as owner-operators of the online poker sites, and the others are charged on the payment-processing side.

Online Poker Operators: Isai Scheinberg & Paul Tate (PokerStars); Raymond Bitar & Nelson Burnick (Full Tilt Poker); Scott Tom & Brent Beckley (Absolute Poker)

Payment Processors:  Ryan Lang, Ira Rubin, Bradley Franzen, Chad Elie, John Campos

It's worth noting that Howard Lederer was not named in the indictment, despite the fact that he was recently named by Bluff Magazine as the most powerful person in the poker industry and has long been rumored to be a primary founder of Full Tilt Poker.

Some people on Twitter and the poker forums have reported that they've seen a Department of Justice seizure notice when trying to access the homepages for the affected online poker sites. Personally, I can access the sites normally, but the sites may have found a temporary workaround.

More recent reports (like this one on Twitter from poker pro Jon Aguiar) are that PokerStars is turning away U.S. customers from real-money games. Other U.S.-facing sites may follow suit soon.

Expect a run-on-the-banks atmosphere as online players do what they can to cash out from the affected sites. (I really hope that Vanessa Selbst and Jason Mercier got paid in cash for their recent NAPT victories.) 

This story is still developing, and mainstream news sites are only now breaking the story with short articles that simply quote the indictment. Expect to see a lot more information on this topic over the weekend. I recommend keeping an eye on Pokerati.com, which excels on legal topics like this. If I see any major details emerge today or over the weekend, I'll post again.

Zynga, the social gaming company behind hugely popular Facebook games like Farmville and Mafia Wars, also has the largest online poker site in the world -- their 38 million users make them bigger than PokerStars. 

The poker industry never paid much attention to Zynga, because they don't play by our rules. They don't advertise in poker magazines, they don't have a presence at the WSOP, and they don't sponsor professional players. With headquarters in San Francisco (near the heart of Silicon Valley), there is little connection between their employees and those of us in the poker industry, making rumors and inside information hard to come by.

But when Zynga announced they would be holding a two-day "PokerCon" at the Palms, everyone in poker suddenly paid attention. There seemed to be a lot of hopes and fears (depending on your view) that Zynga would eventually make a move to dominate the poker industry as we know it. 

For example, those of us in the industry see everything through the lens of legalized online poker in the U.S., so we naturally assume that Zynga must be thinking the same way. But while sites like WSOP.com effectively wait in the wings for poker legislation, and Full Tilt and PokerStars skirt the limits of the law and hold their breath as more and more payment processors are shut down, ZyngaPoker happily -- and legally -- collects millions and millions of dollars from their players. And they can even pay by U.S. credit cards. 

Many people in the poker industry will tell you (as if it were fact) that Zynga will open an online site if (when?) online poker is legalized in the United States. There is, however, one big flaw in that argument -- ZyngaPoker is already an international site. If they're making a play for regular online poker (the kind we're used to), why not open up a European-facing poker site the way that WSOP.com did?

If you ask their executives, they'll tell you that they have no plans to open an online site like PokerStars or Full Tilt. Based on their actions so far, I'm inclined to believe them. (Like any good company, they may change their plans in the future as circumstances change, of course.)

So Poker's collective eyes were on the Zynga PokerCon this past weekend, but most of them didn't understand what they saw. They saw Annie Duke teaching classes, but that was nothing new -- WSOP Academy, Deepstacks University, and WPT Boot Camp have been doing that for years. Everything else at Zynga PokerCon had also been done before -- meet-and-greets with pros like Doyle Brunson and Mike Sexton, a tournament with a large overlay, and a big party at a trendy night club to close out the weekend. 

Many poker observers came away from the weekend feeling like they hadn't seen anything interesting. It had all been done before. 

But the key difference at Zynga PokerCon was the players. This was an extremely different group than you'd find at something like the PCA (PokerStars Caribbean Adventure) -- it was an older demographic, with a much higher percentage of women. While the fundamentals of the game are the same, many of these people play ZyngaPoker for different reasons than the online pros play at Full Tilt or PokerStars. I spent about half the day on Saturday meeting different Zynga players and talking to them in depth, and it was enlightening. Regardless of what the poker industry thinks of PokerCon, the players who were there absolutely loved it, and everyone I asked hoped to return again next year.

I will be writing more about the Zynga PokerCon later this week (and posting one or two full photo blogs), because there is still much more to be said. But if anyone tells you that this weekend was a bust or that there was nothing new worth seeing -- they weren't looking deep enough.

I'll be writing about the Zynga PokerCon throughout the weekend, and posting photos to my Photo Blog. 

Lance Bradley summarized the news in an article on BluffMagazine.com:

On Monday Full Tilt Poker announced the creation of the Onyx Cup Series, a series of six tournaments with buy-ins from $100,000 to $300,000. The first five events will be preliminary events with the sixth event being the $250,000 buy-in Grand Finale.

The events are open to any players wishing to play who can afford the six-figure buy-in and all tournaments will be No Limit Hold’em. The top three finishers in each event will be awarded Onyx Cup leaderboard points and the player with the most points after the Grand Finale will be awarded the Onyx Cup and a luxury sports car.

The video press release from Full Tilt is somewhat surreal. After a 2-minute introduction from Ali Nejad about the basics of the Onyx Cup, the format changes to that of a talk show with Nejad asking questions of five Team Full Tilt players (Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius, Gus Hansen, Erik Seidel, and Tom Dwan). The players take turns complimenting each other and talking about what a great idea this is, but their body language tells me that they're bored. Or maybe I was just bored watching them. 

Point 1: Full Tilt needs a quality spokesperson

While the basic concept sounds exciting on paper (the best of the best competing at the highest possible stakes!), the only energy in their discussion of it came from Ali Nejad, and even he was low-key by his standards. (Nejad, one of the best announcers in poker, could probably power the light on top of the Luxor Casino by the sheer force of his personality.)

While Full Tilt has always distinguished themselves in the poker world by their very slick (and very effective) marketing, they are definitely lacking for a quality spokesperson like Daniel Negreanu, Annie Duke, or Phil Hellmuth. As you watch the video, imagine how much more engaging it would be if Phil Hellmuth were talking about this new tour. Team Full Tilt doesn't have anyone like that, and this video announcement suffers because of it. Sure, Mike Matusow can be high energy, but not in the predictable, polished way that you need for something like this. (I'm starting to think that could be reason enough for Full Tilt to start drafting a hefty offer for Hellmuth's agent.)

Point 2: Will PokerStars players enter?

The first tournament is scheduled to be in Las Vegas on May 11-12, and the fact that it's a two-day tournament should give you some idea of the expected field size. (Small.) On the calendar, it falls a couple days before the $25,000 WPT World Championship, also in Las Vegas, and that's certainly no coincidence as they hope to attract some of the same players. However, the Onyx Cup does overlap the final days of the EPT Grand Finale in Madrid, Spain, creating a potential conflict for PokerStars players. 

Which leads to an obvious question -- with the increasing rivalries between the online sites, will PokerStars allow their players to enter events that are so heavily branded with Full Tilt? And if they don't, how much credibility will a tour have if it's the same 15-20 players pushing each other's money back-and-forth?

Point 3: Yes, I know you'll be taping it, but will anyone broadcast it on TV?

According to the video, the Onyx Cup "will be broadcast in more than 20 languages and 40 countries." While that sounds great, they offer no details. If anyone ever creates a rulebook for reading poker press releases (BJ's Pocket Guide to Poker Press Releases), Rule #1 will state that nothing is a TV show until there is a distribution deal in place with a TV network. Of course, Full Tilt could always fall back on time-buys, paying networks to broadcast the episodes as if they were 60-minute commercials. 

And, based on the info we've seen so far, that's ultimately what these are -- commercials. The Onyx Cup was, not surprisingly, designed for Full Tilt's players more than anyone else, giving them a relatively easy opportunity to rack up millions in additional earnings over the next few years to dominate the top of the all-time money lists. 

Thankfully, the best live tournament trackers in the business over at the Hendon Mob database have updated their all-time money list to restrict the results to open events with buy-ins of $50,000 or less. And Bluff Magazine recently changed their Player of the Year points system to downplay the impact of ultra highroller events.

I have little reason to doubt that the first event will take place in May as scheduled, and that Full Tilt players like Phil Ivey, Erik Seidel, etc. will enter. The big question is who else will enter, and will the field sizes be large enough to make these events feel different than those single-table site-specific invitationals that filled the airwaves in 2006 before the UIGEA hit.

@ESPN_Poker: I do love the new @bluffmagazine Player of the Year system. That said, the fact that @Erik_Seidel is 19th is funny.